India in past have come to many border issues with her neighbor, such as Pakistan, China, Bangladesh and Myanmar. These disputes in the border of India is due to the trade & commercial integration that we use to had in whole Indian subcontinent, until 1947. The Indian subcontinent was world most integrated area in terms of movements of goods and people, and ideas, it’s not because of the British, yes, they gave impetus to it. But the integration was done by the previous rulers and civilisation. Even Harappan civilisation use to have trade link in Karnataka as they use to get gold from Kolar gold mines. Second reason of the border dispute was the treaty signed by then head of state or their servants with the British. Some of the area in the treaty was not properly defined and thus became disputed. Thirdly, the ambition and national requirement of a particular nation’s resource need new territories were annexed by hook or crook and thus, became contested border issues. Administrators of India from the very beginning were aware of the realities of the times then are thus took steps some of which some were very good and some created more border tension between India and her neighbour. Each doctrine has their own advantages and flaws. And the party who take charge of the government after winning any election inherit the advantages and burden of the previous regime. Scholarly speaking the party should not cry that the problem’s inception is not own regime. The party which is taking the charge of government was present in the Parliament when the bill which created the present problem was tabled on the floor of house, thus, they are also equally responsible to that blunder. This is according to the concept of collective responsibility on which India Parliament works.
The present condition of the Indo – Sino border is due to the claims that China assert on the border areas and also due to the appeasement done by the present Indian government.
Appeasement Policy
As India was preoccupied with the COVID19, China was planning its next attempt to change the region’s status quo by force. China’s “unexpected” move should not have been unexpected at all. Last August, China’s government vigorously condemned India’s establishment of Ladakh – including the Chinese – held Aksai Chin Plateau – as a new federal territory. And the PLA had been conducting regular combat exercise near the Indian border this year.
Deception, concealment, and surprise often accompany China’s use of force, with Chinese leaders repeatedly claims that military pre-emption was a defensive measure. The latest assault on India – was taken straight from the Chinese playbook.
Yet, Modi did not see the Chinese incursion coming. He was hoping that by appeasing the Chinese India can reset the bilateral relationship and weaken China’s ties with Pakistan. And took following steps to appease China: -
1. In 2015, Modi approve electronic tourist visas to Chinese national upon their arrival in India.
2. He delisted China as a “country of concern” in an effort to attract Chinese investments, this created problem of dumping in India markets.
3. Dumping created trade surplus in favour of China to the amount of $60 billion (nearly equal to India’s defense spending).
4. When standoff with PLA happened in Doklam, Indian troops stood up to the Chinese, as the PLA attempted to build road, India declared the Doklam disengagement as tactical victory, but over the next several months, China steadily expanded its troops deployment by building permanent military structures, thereby graining control of much of Doklam. Despite being a de facto Bhutan’s security provider, India failed to defend the tiny country. This again please Chinese.
5. In 2018, Modi government backed away from official contact with the Dalai Lama and Tibet’s India – based government – in – exile.
6. At the same time two back to back ‘informal bilateral summit’ was organised in Wuhan and Mallapuram.
Thus, Modi had himself to blame for this state of affairs. With his excessive personalisation of the policy and stubborn strategic naivete, he has shown himself not as the diplomatically deft strongman he purports to be, but as a kind of Indian Neville Chamberlain (After he had a meeting with Hitler).
Now coming to the China’s playbook. The Chinese are always deceptive of their action in both political and military. Thus, understanding China’s diplomacy playbook is very important to know about the future course of action.
China’s Playbook
The strategy of China can be explained as below: -
“The Chinese take 2 steps forward and one step backward”
This is what they do in south China sea and also employed the same policy in Doklam when they advanced too much into the Bhutan territory and then steps back just a little or contested point rather than going to the original area. This was again done when China constructed artificial island in the south China sea and then instead of destroying the island, they retrieve their forces but didn’t dismantle their military infrastructure.
Reason of Action
The Question on why China is doing this, is written so well by Jayadeva Ranade, in short following were the conclusions of the eminent strategic thinker and writer.
1. Internal CPC corrosion.
2. Externally imposed pandemic guilt
3. Hongkong protest
4. Japan assertiveness in the South China Sea
5. Economic slowdown with unemployment reaching a figure of 70 million.
6. Domestic pressure on Chinese President Xi, caused by factors such as – abolition of term limit on appointment of cadres to senior posts criticised by cadres as a return to the ‘one – man rule’ of Mao; rising popular dissatisfaction because of increasingly restrictive and stringent security policies; expanding Party surveillance.
7. On the economic front the trade war with USA and Australia, all is hitting China deep. Due to this the President Xi foreign Policy is not working to attain the ‘Two Centenary’ goals – Dream China by 2021; making China major power with pioneering global influence by 2049.
These dsabove-mentioned factors compelled China to start a ‘ultra – nationalistic’ feeling in the CPC and people of China, and the only way to do that is Army action. Thus, China is opening all the fronts so give this dose to all the Chinese citizens. He have a lot at stake as the loans and money which he distributed to all the country are defaulting in the interest payment due to COVID crisis and that money have just turned into NPA. Thus, China is in a midst of a great challenge which can even take his Presidential ship.
How India should Deal?
First of all India government should release press statement the final aim of the government, as the way to achieve may have a lot of secret acts and way which should not be revealed to the public. But final aim of the government should be released. This is necessary because the Doklam should not be repeated and on the name of political propaganda India’s territorial integrity should not be compromised. Secondly, there is no doubt that Indian arm forces are capable of countering the threat but, to ease their work back – channel talks to the Pakistan should be initiated on the grounds of helping them pay the huge Chinese debt. This back channel talked should be initiated on the very sound principle of foreign policy which goes like – when a country has to fight two front war, the country should engage one of the less challenging country with talks and focus more on the more challenging country. Thirdly, in long run India should make sure that in coming 5-6 years trade with China should be reduced to 75-80% from the current level.
Concluding, the crisis of the COVID have created a very dangerous world as all the government around the spectrum in globe failed to contain the virus and is blaming each other or WHO. And thus, to safe the seat leaders will turn to the nationalistic feeling, this make the job of PM of India very hard as he should not be seen as compromising the Indian territory.
Mention must be made here of all the brave officer and soldiers who laid their life on 15th June 2020 night for your freedom. I wrote this piece on 13th June and thus was not able to incorporate the valuable contribution our military men are giving by making the supreme sacrifice.
Time to boycott china economically
ReplyDeletetrue, that's the only way available to India, if we don't want a war.
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