China – India relations reached a new low recent months as Indian and Chinese troops faced off at various places along disputed LAC,
· On May 5-6 at Pangong Tso in Eastern Ladakh
· On May 9 at Muguthang in Sikkim
· On June 15 – 16, Galwan Valley in Ladakh
China have adopted various means and techniques to asset its position on the area. The very purpose of this blog is to inform the reader about various diplomatic and military methods China use and its most possible remedy from Indian side taking military and economic angles.
The change in the status of the J&K and making Ladakh a UT had a profound impact in the Chinese South Asia Policy. It is generally understood in the Chinese policy circles that this change in the status quo will be negative for the China’s vision. Thus, a systemic military and diplomatic steps were taken by the CPC.
Some of concern that China have with India is change on the China’s threat perception via-a-vis India post Dokalam crisis, this prompted China to consider India as the “toughest regional competitor or the biggest threat in the region” to China’s rise. They perceive that India is using the international situation (which is in favour of India and unfavourable to China, due to the COVID situation and demand of independent probe). Given the above premise China seems to have adopted following steps to achieve its aim which is to gain the control over most of the Galwan valley and some strategic point.
1. It had set off the agenda to degrade the public image/ opinion against India at the international level, portraying India as destabilising factor in South Asia, this has been done in the recently concluded WHA (World Health Assembly).
2. China has simultaneously provoking all the neighbouring countries, irrespective of their sizes, this is the real reason of Nepal suddenly up the ante with India. China stocked the idea of Greater Nepal and Gorkha Nationalism in the mountain nation. This is accompanied by huge economic package of $2.5 billion assistance to Nepal Army. Nepal have a nominal GDP of nearly $30 billion, is a cause of concern.
3. Chinese strategists are also exploring the future possibility of a ‘prolonged guerrilla warfare’, a ‘prompt military action’ on India – Nepal border or setting up a ‘Third Front’ (China – Pakistan – Nepal) strategic challenges to restrict India in the North.
4. To resist the foreign interference in the region the China started a diplomatic steps and media campaign complaining that the US is trying to dictate terms between China and India and even encouraging India to intensify its conformation with China, so as to secure the future of its ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy.
5. Internally, Chinese strategists ridiculed Indi’s military strength and its great power ambition given its “arsenal full of imported weapons”.
6. Chinese nationalist media warned that India should not remain under the illusion that Chinese economy is hit and China is internationally isolated.
Lastly Chinese media house Huanqiushibao was running following statement for India: -
“The USA is not the international community and China is not isolated. The more the Chinese nation encounters external pressure, the more united it will get, and more it cannot admit defeat. Hope Indian society will strengthen its understanding and research on China, and do not wish to understand China wishfully, let alone understand China through the perspective of the United States of America”
Seeing this it is very clear that Chinese has not come to play rather they mean serious business, hopefully the BRO had been building roads and bridges and Indian Army had swing into action post a Commanding Officer and his 20 men attain in Galwan valley. But this will not remain a protected war rather many more means need to be mobilised in the concern area and also diplomatic stance should be reviewed. The steps that GoI should take to counter the foresaid steps of Chinese are:
1. The image of India as a very diverse and peace-loving country is acceptable globally, the recent Delhi riots and CAA/NRC laws passed in Indian Parliament need to be projected in bright light which Mr. Jaishankar was doing for a long time and thus, very less damage has been done to the Indian image. Thus, the concern of image is the least important to Indian administration.
2. The thing which will remain to be an irritant to India will be China – Pakistan – Nepal axis, this new grouping against India need very careful and tactful moves. After Nepal passed the New map of the country in a unilateral move, India first of all try to break the axis by offer economic aid and doing give and take to between the two countries so that India have to fight on one front rather than three fronts.
3. India also don’t want any foreign interference in this domestic issue, this is because of the reason that that seek the help of western hemisphere will tarnish the image of aspiring world power. But, since India have very less indigenous made weapon system, diplomatic help from Russia, Israel, and USA, France is very important.
4. To be very factual most of the Indian weapon platform are imported and thus, this is a weak link in the chain. India need to take this very seriously, and immediate action is required to develop at least 50 – 100 premium defence MSME in the country in next 5 to 10 years, India’s premium institutes should start incubation and entrepreneur cell to foster such MSME. Defence PSU are not a solution as they are not capable of manufacturing support instrument required in assembly lines for the manufacture of defence platform. For immediate steps procurement should be streamlined and more defence officers should be included in the process rather than civil servants. The office of CDS can play a major part in this regard.
Coming to the propaganda that Chinese media is spreading in India, that India cannot fathom the Chinese spirit than they need to remind one thing that, when whole Chinese civilisation crumble in front of the “Mongol threat”, it was Indian soldiers who arrest the advance of the Great Mongol. Thus, as far as the fighting spirit goes Indians are at par and in most of cases better fighter than their Chinese counterpart.
In the end in my personal opinion is that Indian government should give free hand to the Indian Army, Indian Air Force & Indian Navy to operate under the joint command of CDS this will be a great chance to see the effectiveness of the system and will also show flaws which can be rectified.
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