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Weather Report Diplomacy



India is situated at the cross-road of a very busy trade route both via land and also via sea, via land India was part of famous Silk Route, which was superhighway of the ancient world and thus, created a foundation which will support the multi-religion, multi-lateral and vibrant civilisation in the times to come. Importance of silk route cannot be negated as the route was not only used for exchange of goods but, there was exchange of ideas, culture, and most important inter-action of people. This made the North-Western part of India very vibrant which still can be seen. Same kind of interaction was witnessed in the south when powerful, Chola empire was ruling the southern part of India. They were responsible for spreading Hindu Culture and way of life, way-upto Korea. These regions of influence and territorial gain of any empire show the strength of the empire and thus, their place in the contemporary civilisation.

            China in recent times is bone of contention which have emerged so much potent that not only immediate neighbour but countries across the Pacific are changing their foreign policy to contain China. Some of the claim of China in terms of territory are: -

1.     Bhutanese enclaves in Tibet, namely Cherkip Gompa, Dho Dungmar, Gesur, Gezon, Itse d Gompa, Khochar, Nyanri, Ringing, Sanmar, Tarchen & Zuthulphuk.

2.     China – India, namely, Depsang Plains, Demchok, Chumar, Kaurik, Shipki La, Barahoti, Jadhang, Lapthal, Nelang, Pulam Sumda & Sang.

3.     China – Malaysia, James Shoal island

4.     China – Bhutan, Kula Kangri & mountainous areas to the west of this peak, plus the western Haa District of Bhutan.

5.     China – Indonesia – Taiwan, Parts of EEZ generated by the Natuna Islands.

6.     China – Taiwan – Vietnam, Paracel Islands

7.     China – Philippines, Scarborough Shoal

8.     Japan – China – Taiwan, Senkaku Islands

9.     China – India, Trans – Karakoram Tracts

10.  India – Pakistan – China, Ladakh

11.  China – Taiwan – Vietnam – Philippines – Malaysia – Brunei, Spratly Island

12.  China – Taiwan, Macclesfield Bank

13.  China – Taiwan, Mainland China, Hainan, and Other island controlled by the PRC.

14.  China – Taiwan, Heixiazi/ Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island

15.  China – Taiwan, Hong Kong

16.  China – Taiwan, Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu Islands, Pratas Islands

17.  China – Tajikistan, Pamir Mountains

18.  China – North Korea – South Korea, Yalu River

These disputed boundary or territorial disputes denote that China is rising in power, and this rise in power of China will annoy many countries this is why China make friends-cum-satellite states which not only ensure the safety of Chinese assets. One such state is Pakistan; Pakistan is a state which was used by the USA to counter USSR during Cold War, Gulf war & Afghanistan War. These gave Pakistan huge economic and military aid. Newfound friend of the Pakistan is China which is utilising the Pak’s land to achieve the aim of OBOR. This compelled the Pakistan to rename the state of Gilgit and Baltistan and a new state instead of Autonomous State and Pakistan Supreme Court instructed Pak government to set-up machinery so that Pakistan SC can exercise its jurisdiction over the region.

            This have increased nervousness in the Indian administration as the area on which Pakistan is doing all its manoeuvring belongs to India. In India everyone is aware of the narrative of why J&K is such a problem for India. Every political party twist the facts to suit and advance their vote bank politics. But, in the end J&K issue boils down to the geopolitics of the region.

            Kashmir is the state which link India with the Central Asian (CA) country of Tajikistan and connect India with Afghanistan. Even though the climate does not permit a motorable road from that region, but it does provide the military of the India to have a strategic location. Another geopolitical angle into the issue is the vast resource of the CA, CA countries are known for their natural gas and petroleum reserves and thus, any kind of land connection to these countries is an added advantage to any country who is aspiring to be a super power. Attempts were made in past to resolve the J&K issue by different leaders and in different way from ‘Bus Diplomacy’ of Atal Bihari Vajpayee to ‘Open Trade’ of Manmohan Singh, but nothing gave expected results. Since the 2014, Indian government have become very assertive to its territory in the neighbourhood, which is a very positive step taken by the Government of India (GoI).

            Recent step to show weather report of the Gilgit-Baltistan is very welcoming step as it turns the table in the Indian side. By showing the weather report implies many things, such as: -

1.     The whole narrative of Jammu & Kashmir is now confined to just Gilgit-Baltistan. Now, talks will not happen on the J&K, but negotiations will happen particularly for Gilgit-Baltistan.

2.     India have sends signal to Pakistan that region will be taken back.

3.     India also denoted very strongly that this issue of Gilgit-Balistan will and should be solved locally and no foreign interference is acceptable.

The above three implication are very important and assertive and was a kind of step that Indian citizen were expecting from the government. The Pakistan government to do plotting in the crisis time of COVID19 have more of less backfired Pakistan, as big brother China is not coming to rescue. China is already facing huge opposition from the western countries on spread the COVID by not sharing information and true reports and influencing WHO.

China thus, acted through Nepal, which recently have huge anti-India sentiment owing to the blockage done by India. Thus, Nepal have recently started territorial dispute with India in the Kalapani region when India widen the already existing road in the region to cut-short the travel time to Kailash – Mansarovar.

This all hatching around India at this time following can be concluded: -

1.     India’s Neighbourhood First Policy is a failure since a friendly state have turned hostile (Nepal).

2.     Lacklustre result of Act East Policy as if South Eastern Region can be dominated by Indian trade than China will automatically come into backfoot as China’s trade relation will be hurt in a very deeper manner.

3.     China export oriented model of economy is a failure.

In the end China and Pakistan have realised that India is a regional gravity centre as in the recent OIC (Organisation of Islamic Countries) Maldives very strongly defended India against the charge of Islamphobia. China also feel endanger as if India succeed in taking back Gilgit-Balistan than huge investment that China have done in the name of CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) will never be used by the China.   


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